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22.08.2011

BNE: MRSK Urals disclosed its long-term estimates on tariff decisions over 2011-2015

We believe the news is unlikely to have any significant impact on the stock.

MRSK Urals disclosed its long-term estimates regarding tariff decisions over 2011-2015. The company incorporated new tariff decisions for 2011 approved by the REC (regional energy commission) finto its long-term estimates. MRSK Urals anticipates that company revenue will rise by up to 20% in 2012, 16% in 2013, 8% in 2014 and 10% in 2015.

At the beginning of the year most MRSK subsidiaries were switched to RAB regulation, and the long-term RAB parameters and tariffs were approved for the companies. However, in February the government said that electricity tariffs for end consumers must be cut. The cap for electricity tariff growth was set as 15% for 2011, and the new tariff decisions for most MRSKs were approved in July.

The main source of current uncertainty is end consumer electricity tariff growth for 2012, which must be approved by the government in the fall. The government is considering three scenarios for tariff growth in 2012, imply tariff growth between 4-13% depending on the scenario. The 2012 tariffs for MRSKs will be decided once electricity tariff growth for end consumer in 2012 has been approved.

The government is also actively considering ways to improve the electricity market model. A work group headed by First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov set up to make relevant reccommendations suggested the yield for invested capital be lowered and the period of RAB regulation be extended to 7 years.

The uncertainty regarding tarrif growth and the changes that the government could make to the electricity market lead us to believe that MRSK Urals figures reflect only the company?s estimates, and cannont be incorporated into our DCF model. We believe the news is unlikely to have any significant impact on the company?s stock.

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