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01.12.2011

Interfax.com: Alrosa shares soar in low volume in MICEX debut

Shares in diamond miner Alrosa (RTS: ALRS) soared in their first two days of trading on the MICEX exchange in thin volume.

Alrosa was only quoted on the RTS Board until November 29. The MICEX decided on November 23 to admit the stock to trading. The stock rose 16% on Tuesday, its first day as a non-listed stock on the MICEX, and 40% early Wednesday. The stock closed Tuesday at 35 rubles on the MICEX, and rose to 54.6 rubles early November 30.

Trading volume was just 704,800 rubles on Tuesday, with only 17,359 shares or 0.0002% of Alrosa's issued shares changing hands.

The shares fell 2.5% on the RTS Board to $1.07 in volume of 54,010 shares on Tuesday.

A trader for Metropol told Interfax that trading volume in the shares could remain low in the next few days because the shares are not readily available. «Not many people have them on the exchange. There's no bridge [to transfer shares to the MICEX depositary on-line] and the stock will not get established on the MICEX quickly,» Alexander Balian said.

«But turnover ought to rise significantly in a week. Just like other shares that are being admitted to the MICEX, the hype around these will die down gradually and spread on the RTS Board will widen. There'll definitely be more liquidity on the MICEX than on the RTS Board, the trader said.

«We shouldn't expect a significant increase in turnover in the immediate future, because the company's free float will stay at around 9%, but we are likely to see more interest in the paper due to the MICEX admission,» said Metropol analyst Sergei Filchenkov. Major funds that are focused on stocks in the listing process and previously did not have the opportunity to buy a stock on the RTS Board will now obtain a recognized quotation and will be able to buy Alrosa shares. «So the MICEX trading, although as a non-listed stock, will widen the potential pool of investors in Alrosa shares,» he said.

The analyst said he did not think the future surge in activity in Alrosa shares had anything to do with the possible intent by Suleiman Kerimov to increase his stake in Alrosa - press reports say he has bought 1% of the diamond company's shares. «He can do this quite easily on the OTC market - the admission to trading isn't as important to him,» Filchenkov said, adding that Kerimov might take part in the placement planned in 2012.

He said the company itself wanted admission to the MICEX as a step towards making itself more public and obtaining a market valuation ahead of a potential IPO in 2012-2013.

Sovlink's Alexander Morin said Alrosa's admission to the MICEX was positive for small investors, but that shares in diamond companies should not be bought to safeguard investments as prices for those shares were prone to correction. «This is only a good investment if markets are stable, and right now diamond prices are at high but have somewhere to correct,» Morin said, adding that the Alrosa shares might grow in the short term, but might follow the market down in then medium-term.

Morin said trading on the MICEX would not have a long-term impact on Alrosa's shares and that liquidity would be hard to maintain due to the low free float.

Morin also said there were negative factors associated with Alrosa itself. The company is one of the world's biggest diamond suppliers, but demand for rough diamonds has started to trend downwards, he said. Alrosa chief Fyodor Andreyev has said the company might lower its revenue forecast from $5.1 billion to $4.5 billion in 2011.

Morin said it was hard to draw a connection between the MICEX trading and the IPO, which he said would probably take place at the beginning of 2013, possibly with an SPO.

The Russian Federal Property Agency (Rosimuschestvo) holds 50.9256% of Alrosa's shares, Yakutia's Property Relations Ministry owns 32.0002%, eight districts of Yakutia own 8.0003% and individuals and corporate bodies own the remaining 9.0739%, including Vostok Nafta Investment and KIT Finance (RTS: CITB) (0.83%).

The Alrosa mined 26.238 million carats of diamonds and had sales revenue of $3.555 billion in January-September, the company said last week.

Alrosa mines a quarter of the world's diamonds. It boosted output 5% last year to 34.336 million carats. Sales revenue was 113.4 billion rubles to International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS).

http://global.factiva.com/aa/?ref=DAIBN00020111201e7bu0015x&pp=1&fcpil=ru&napc=G&sa_from =

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