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16.10.2012

The Moscow news: Questions of the week

1. What are the limits for Russia becoming a route for transshipment?

2. What infrastructure developments do you see coming in the future?

3. Could this lead to developments in Russian industry?

Andrei Rozhkov

senior analyst, Metropol

1. Although Russia provides Europe- Asia transit transportation for air, sea (the Northern Sea Route) and rail shipments, we believe that rail cargo transportation has the most transit potential. In our view, the main limit for rail cargo is a low average speed, which is due to both a weak level of rail infrastructure and a delay with customs clearance.

2. We believe that the Russian government will improve conditions for transit cargoes. In particular, we expect that Russian Railways [RZD, the national rail monopoly] will prioritize capital expenditure for transit route infrastructure, including railways and locomotives. Additionally, the Russian government is working on speeding up customs clearance and simplifying transportation documents. We also think that rail operators will make some developments to improve transit service. Here, we think that the increasing the use of block-trains, consisting of railcars all originating from the same location and traveling to the same destination – without any being split off in transit – will improve average speed, making transit service even more competitive with sea shipment.

3. Although transportation in many industries is one of the main cost items, we doubt that improvement in transit traffic will lead to industrial development in the medium term. We think that an increase in volume will result in stronger business for Russian cargo operators, which will be the main beneficiaries from an increase. Over the long term, we believe that Russian industry could benefit from transit traffic as it could provide some manufacturing service to transit cargoes, following improvement in labor efficiency and technology.

http://themoscownews.com/business/20121015/190363246.html

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